Europe’s shift to ‘far-right’ is just half the story. How to read EU election results

In 2009, a Dutch Member of Parliament was denied entry in the United Kingdom over his extremist views.

In 2024, the MP, Geert Wilders, emerged as the kingmaker in the Netherlands. While he will not become the Dutch Prime Minister as per the terms of the coalition deal he has struck, his party emerged as the single-largest party.

In Germany, Alternative for Germany (AfD), the party considered too extremist even for the ‘far-right’ bloc ID Group, polled more votes than the country’s ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) in this month’s European Parliament’s elections.

Similarly, the National Rally (RN) of France, another ‘far-right’ party, polled more than double the votes than the coalition of five parties led by President Emmanuel Macron.

Such a turnaround of electoral fortunes of parties once deemed fringe have led to frantic discussions around the takeover of Europe by the ‘far-right’ forces. While these facts and figures do speak for themselves, they don’t tell the complete story. For one, even amid the surge of the ‘far-right’, the moderate European People’s Party (EPP) bloc of European Union (EU) chief Ursula von der Leyen has not only emerged as the largest bloc but has also increased its seats.

Even though the UK is not in the EU, it is in the continental Europe and the voters there are almost certain to elect a Labour Party’s government in the next month’s general elections by throwing out the Conservatives.

Has Europe really been taken over by ‘far-right’?

The contradictions amid the surge of right-wing parties leads to two questions:

2. Has Europe really been taken over by ‘far-right’?

3. Are these parties —the AfD, RN, or Italy’s Brothers of Italy (Fdl)— really extremist and far-right or is it just a label from mainstream Western media that’s not able to understand or fathom the election results?

The right-wing parties of Europe are too diverse ideologically to be clubbed into a single category, says Swasti Rao, a scholar of Europe at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA).

“While there is indeed a rightward shift in Europe, it is neither uniform nor is it a complete takeover. The so-called far-right parties are divided on some of the most fundamental issues. There is a whole spectrum of European right-wing parties where you have the moderates, far-right, and parties too extreme for even the so-called far-right. The media coverage often clubs all right-wing parties as far-right as if they are one single entity. They are not,” says Rao, an Associate Fellow at the Europe and Eurasia Center of MP-IDSA.

Another way to understand the electoral trends in Europe is through the prism of anti-incumbency. While there is a rightward shift, a lot of support for right-wing parties in Europe is protest vote against the status quo — the ruling centrists or leftists. It is also the case in the UK where the voters are about to bring in Labour after dissatisfaction with 14 years of Conservative Party’s rule.

Ankita Dutta, a scholar of Europe’s right-wing politics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), tells Firstpost the right-wing parties in Europe have capitalised on crises in the past few years, such as the financial crisis, migration crisis, cost of living crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the conflict in Ukraine.

“These issues added to the disillusionment and insecurity of people and fortified their beliefs that these issues have not been tackled properly by mainstream parties. Therefore, it is more of a protest vote. But that should not be taken as a momentary development because these parties now have a dedicated base among the lower economic sections of the society who have faced the brunt of economic slowdown and increasing migration,” says Dutta, an Assistant Professor at the Centre for European Studies of JNU’s School of International Studies.

Instead of a mere protest vote, it is a classic example of politics of resentment, says Dutta.

Right-wing vs right-wing in Europe

In the European Parliament’s elections, the parties in the various countries form transnational blocs to come together at the Europe level.

The bloc with the maximum seats is the moderate EPP which comprises centrist to centre-right parties. Not only is it the biggest bloc, it won 14 seats more than the last time.

The two blocs labelled as far-right are the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) blocs. While the ECR is led by Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, the ID comprises France’s Marine Le Pen’s RN.

Even as the Western mainstream media has been writing anxiously about the rise of both of these blocs, it would be a mistake to think they are cut from the same cloth.

For one, while Meloni is pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine, and a hawk on Russia, Le Pen is sceptical of the aid to Ukraine and has been appreciative of Russian leader Vladimir Putin in the past.

“The two right wing blocs of ECR and ID are so divided on the most fundamental issues, such as of Ukraine and Russia, that they cannot be clubbed together. They are not part of one large right-wing bloc in the EU but are two separate blocs and represent two brands of right-wing politics. The ECR is much closer to EPP. Ursula von der Leyen and Giorgia Meloni have a good working relationship. That’s not the case with Marine Le Pen,” says Rao of MP-IDSA.

Moreover, the AfD of Germany, which has been flagged for neo-Nazi associations and functioning on a range of other racist platforms, was thrown out of the ID bloc and Le Pen also distanced herself from the party. The so-called extremists of the ID bloc found AfD too extremist even for them.

If the two right-wing blocs come together, they would sway the working of the EU but that’s easier said than done as they hardly see eye to eye on major issues, including migration, Russia, and Ukraine, says Dutta of JNU’s Centre for European Studies.

What’s the road ahead for Europe?

While Europe has not been taken over by the far-right —and not everyone labelled as far-right is actually an extremist— the continent is definitely moving to the right.

Even though the right-wing parties of Europe are too diverse ideologically and their political positions are poles apart, some of the underlying reasons driving them are the same, such as nativism, nationalism, anti-immigrant sentiment, euroscepticism, welfarism, and a disdain for the sociopolitical elite, says Dutta.

Even though some of the parties are indeed extremists and far-right in the proper sense of the word —such as Germany’s AfD— the right-wing parties in general are not a copy of the 19th century Nazism of Germany or fascism of Italy. Dutta adds that even as some parties have authoritarian and xenophobic streaks, they also accept democracy.

Here, Dutch political scientist Cass Mudde offers a distinction between the radical and extreme. He says the former is a specification of the latter, as in, the extreme right encompasses all features of the radical right plus anti-democratic features as a defining element.

So, what’s the road ahead for Europe? It is certainly turning right. But is it turning extreme right? Not yet.

Rao of MP-IDSA tells Firstpost that the rise of the right-wing —or the far-right— should lead to the mainstreaming of the debates around immigration and will force the centrists to harden their position on the subject.

“The anxiety around immigration is a major contributor to the support for right-wing parties in Europe. This is seen in places like Italy and Germany. In France, the support for the far-right is further driven by anti-incumbency against Macron. These results should make the centrists realise that if they will not address immigration or look into other grievances of people, the anxious voters will turn to the right-wing or the far-right,” says Rao.

Is this the 1st time right-wing has surged in Europe?

For the past 14 years, the UK has been ruled by the Conservatives.

For the past 14 years, Hungary has been ruled by Viktor Orban — the most pro-Russia and extremist far-right leader in Europe.

For many years, Robert Fico has run Slovakia and, as mentioned earlier, Geert Wilders has emerged as the powerbroker in the Netherlands.

So, it’s not the case that the right-wing has surged in Europe for the first time in these elections. Then, what has driven the hue and cry this time? Rao of IDSA says it’s the fact that some of the largest European nations, such as France and Italy, have seen a surge.

“In France and Italy, the vote in the European Parliamentary elections was also kind of a referendum and a protest vote against their domestic politics. Italy, France and Germany are the largest countries of Europe with the most seats in the European Parliament. So, when the right-wing parties prevailed over the centrists or leftists in these countries after years of build-up, the world suddenly woke up to the realisation that the right-wingers had arrived. In reality, they were always there in Europe. The wider world only took note when the largest countries, France and Germany, also elected them this month,” says Rao.

Dutta says that the right-wing parties are here to stay. She adds that some right-wing governments have been, in fact, quite stable — even though controversial.

“A good example of this is of course Orban who has been in power for over a decade. The PiS in Poland is also an example. We need to understand that right-wing parties are here to stay and it is primarily because the mainstream has legitimised the policy positions taken by these parties through co-opting their issues and rhetoric,” says Dutta.

The clubbing together of all right-wing parties as radicals, extremists, or far-right removes the nuances from what’s in reality a very complex full-fledged spectrum of ideas and parties. There is also the difference between politics and governance. While Meloni was often projected to be a venom-spewing extremist prior to taking office, she has governed just like any other mainstream leader.

“Being in the government has a sobering effect on you. If you have to govern, you have to sober up. You may say you want to ban immigrants but, once you are in power, you have to face the reality that Europe is an ageing society and it needs immigrants. The demographic decline is way too clear in Italy. After coming to power, Meloni has moved from her rhetoric against immigration in general to checking illegal immigration. She has largely moderated just like any other mainstream leader,” says Rao.

The political terms thrown around —progressive, centrists, right, far-right— also depend on where you stand. In a discussion hosted by The Spectator magazine, journalist and political commentator Douglas Murray noted that centrists and even leftists in France have positions that appear to be more right-wing than the Conservatives of the UK.

Referring to former French PM Manuel Valls, a leftist, Murray said Valls would speak in a manner that the “Right of the Tory Party would baulk at”.

“Why? That’s because they have got a serious demographic and illegal immigration issue and a serious security concern. People don’t realise that ahead of the Olympic games in Paris, the centre of the city is in a very near-lockdown. They just thwarted another plot to carry out a terrorist attack during it and everybody is on the edge about it. That’s why as the situation in the country changes, the politicians change in response,” said Murray.

In France, the centrist Macron suffered a double-whammy where he was not right enough for right-winger voters who believed he was not hawkish enough and was certainly not a darling of the left over his tough national security policies over the years.