NEW DELHI: Russia will collapse and become a failed state in the next 10 years either due to revolution, civil war or political disintegration.
The shocking prediction emerged in a survey of around 150 experts, conducted by the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
In its Global Foresight 2023 report, the council stated that foreign policy experts believe that the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine could precipitate hugely consequential upheaval in a great power with the largest nuclear-weapons arsenal on the planet.
Nearly half (46%) of the respondents expect Russia to either become a failed state or break up by 2033. More than a fifth (21%) consider Russia the most likely country to become a failed state within the next ten years, which is more than twice the percentage for the next most common choice, Afghanistan.
Even more striking, 40% of respondents expect Russia to break up internally by 2033 because of revolution, civil war, political disintegration, or some other reason. Europeans are particularly pessimistic about Russia breaking up: 49% of them foresee such an event, compared with 36% of Americans.
Western officials believe that Russia has been significantly weakened by its invasion of Ukraine 11 months ago, in part due to crippling sanctions and export controls. Economists say Russia’s productive capacity is steadily degrading as a result of the punitive measures, pushing the country back decades.
In November, Moscow slipped into recession — eight months after it launched its attack. The nation’s central bank has warned that a ban on Russian oil and a price cap on its crude announced by the European Union were “new economic shocks” that could choke activity in the coming months.
Darker prediction
With the US and other allies throwing their full support behind Kyiv in the form of billion of dollars worth of weapons, Russian president Vladimir Putin has begun to publicly acknowledge that Moscow is facing setbacks in Ukraine and that the conflict will take a long time.
His rhetoric has also become more aggressive and on several occasions has said that Moscow will use “all means” to safeguard its territory.
Roughly 14% of the surveyed experts opined that Russia is likely to use a nuclear weapon within the next 10 years.
Among those expecting the country to experience both state failure and a breakup in the coming decade, 22% believe that use of nuclear weapons will be part of that history ten years hence.
Some optimism
Several experts, however, had a more hopeful prediction for Russia. Of those who believe Russia is likely to experience state failure or a breakup over the coming decade, 10% think that it is the most likely of any currently autocratic country to become democratic by the end of this period.
The shocking prediction emerged in a survey of around 150 experts, conducted by the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
In its Global Foresight 2023 report, the council stated that foreign policy experts believe that the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine could precipitate hugely consequential upheaval in a great power with the largest nuclear-weapons arsenal on the planet.
Nearly half (46%) of the respondents expect Russia to either become a failed state or break up by 2033. More than a fifth (21%) consider Russia the most likely country to become a failed state within the next ten years, which is more than twice the percentage for the next most common choice, Afghanistan.
Even more striking, 40% of respondents expect Russia to break up internally by 2033 because of revolution, civil war, political disintegration, or some other reason. Europeans are particularly pessimistic about Russia breaking up: 49% of them foresee such an event, compared with 36% of Americans.
Western officials believe that Russia has been significantly weakened by its invasion of Ukraine 11 months ago, in part due to crippling sanctions and export controls. Economists say Russia’s productive capacity is steadily degrading as a result of the punitive measures, pushing the country back decades.
In November, Moscow slipped into recession — eight months after it launched its attack. The nation’s central bank has warned that a ban on Russian oil and a price cap on its crude announced by the European Union were “new economic shocks” that could choke activity in the coming months.
Darker prediction
With the US and other allies throwing their full support behind Kyiv in the form of billion of dollars worth of weapons, Russian president Vladimir Putin has begun to publicly acknowledge that Moscow is facing setbacks in Ukraine and that the conflict will take a long time.
His rhetoric has also become more aggressive and on several occasions has said that Moscow will use “all means” to safeguard its territory.
Roughly 14% of the surveyed experts opined that Russia is likely to use a nuclear weapon within the next 10 years.
Among those expecting the country to experience both state failure and a breakup in the coming decade, 22% believe that use of nuclear weapons will be part of that history ten years hence.
Some optimism
Several experts, however, had a more hopeful prediction for Russia. Of those who believe Russia is likely to experience state failure or a breakup over the coming decade, 10% think that it is the most likely of any currently autocratic country to become democratic by the end of this period.