Saturday, November 23, 2024

A Fresh Start for EU-UK Relations? It’s as Easy as EPC

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On 18 July the UK will host the fourth European Political Community (EPC) meeting at Blenheim Palace. The meeting presents a vital opportunity for the newly elected government to engage with the European Union on fresh terms. Careful thought is needed, however, about how both sides engage and what the viable next steps are to building better ties.

First things first: given the sense of political silence on UK-EU relations in recent years, driven by competing priorities in Brussels and political complexities in Westminster, you’d be forgiven for being unsure what the EPC is. Essentially, it is a political grouping established by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It includes not just the EU member states but also the UK, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Norway, Switzerland and the six western Balkan countries.

The initial belief at the heart of the EPC’s foundation was that in the face of common challenges like Russian aggression, Europe – not just the European Union – needed to better cooperate to respond collectively. While the EPC’s meetings to date have facilitated important discussions on the war in Ukraine, migration and energy supply, it’s fair to say the grouping hasn’t yet taken off as a vital forum for discussion. There is a chance to change this at Blenheim, but careful thought is needed to ensure this year’s meeting produces more than just warm words on both sides.

With expectations high, but priorities competing, it’s worth setting out what the EU and UK will be looking for from the meeting before turning to what outcomes we can expect.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government will have to maintain a careful balance in its approach to the EU in general and to this EPC meeting in particular. The hope among pro-EU political circles is that Starmer will improve relations with the EU and that this will help catalyse growth in the UK economy. He will be free of some of the constraints that party politics presented for the Conservatives but must nonetheless navigate reaffirming that the UK will not rejoin the EU, the single market or the EU Customs Union. So, while expectations are high, room for manoeuvre is limited. The new government will hope to use the summit to show improved dynamics in the UK-EU relationship, while also announcing closer defence cooperation, an agreement on veterinary checks (to improve agrifood trade), and possibly also practical agreements on youth mobility and artists’ visas.

From the EU side, the picture is also complex. Of the varied priorities under discussion in Brussels at the moment, the UK relationship is not at the top of the agenda. Broadly, leaders in Europe welcome the Labour government and the possibility of closer ties but retain clear red lines. The UK can discuss closer alignment but, they will say, cannot cherry pick. Within the EU, there is appetite for agreement on youth mobility and on access to UK fish. There is less appetite to reopen wider discussions on the trade relationship. From Brussels, the message to Starmer will be clear: we are glad you are in office, but the fundamentals don’t change – you’re in or out. It will be up to him to explore the strength of this position.

So, on both sides there is the hope of better optics to the relationship, and some practical improvements to it, but a sense of realism on the core issues. This will require both London and Brussels to walk a careful tightrope between expectations and reality, and carefully balance next steps in the relationship.

It is widely expected that closer defence ties will be announced at the EPC, or at least soon. That would be common sense and beneficial to both sides. Youth-mobility and artist-visa agreements would also be quick wins. So too would a veterinary agreement that facilitates easier trade. What more could be achieved at Blenheim?

The cornerstone of a refreshed relationship must be better communication. At present the EU has regular formal summits with countries like Canada, New Zealand and Japan but none with the UK.

Labour figures have established good working relationships in Brussels, but the UK remains outside the room during key discussions. Changing this will be the foundation for better ties and should be the key announcement at Blenheim. There are exciting possibilities for how the UK-EU relationship could evolve in the coming months, but it all starts with more regular and deeper dialogue.

The UK and EU should commit to regular summits that address the full horizon of bilateral issues. This can include preparation for the 2026 review of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement but should also allow both sides to identify further quick wins in the meantime.

Underpinning this, the UK and its partners should seize the opportunity of the Blenheim summit to equip the EPC with a full-time secretariat that works towards fostering cooperation on issues of importance for all participant countries. The secretariat should oversee dedicated working groups, particularly on security and defence. The UK government should also take steps to rebuild and deepen its expertise on the EU, and to give the EPC format the requisite focus to deepen bilateral ties with member states and other European partners.

It is not only in the UK’s interest that the EPC is given new life. It is in the EU’s as well. Brussels also needs a forum that allows quick movement with non-EU partners on common issues like security and defence: how to best support Ukraine and how to handle volatile situations in Georgia and Moldova, while coordinating on a common posture towards a belligerent Russia. The EPC also presents the EU with important diplomatic opportunities, for instance to better align with partners in supporting the western Balkans on their journey to membership and to establish a common understanding on how best to work with Washington in the future, regardless of the outcome of the November elections. Just as the UK cannot tackle any of these issues alone, neither can the EU. The EPC could, with a little work on both sides, quickly become a vital forum for discussion and action on continent-wide issues.

So, at Blenheim: yes, let’s hope for practical first steps – on closer defence ties, for example – but more importantly let’s hope both sides commit to more regular, formal communication. Deeper and closer ties won’t happen overnight, but the important first steps can be taken this month. It’s as easy as EPC.

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