The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has forced a reassessment of the calculus that saw shrank Europe’s militaries after the Cold War.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the debate over compulsory military service has resurfaced across Europe, with many countries reconsidering whether conscription could bolster their national security.
In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, European mass armies relied heavily on universal conscription for men. But after the Cold War, these mass armies were systematically downsized.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that military spending in Western Europe plummeted from an average of 2.4% to 1.6% of GDP during this period.
In 1990, West Germany alone boasted 215 combat battalions; however, by 2023, despite the reunification of Germany, this number had plummeted to just 31 battalions — a staggering 84% reduction.
Italy and the United Kingdom experienced similar declines. The number of Italian battalions fell by 67%, while British battalions were nearly halved.
The assumption was that the era of large-scale conflict in Europe had ended, replaced by an era of relative peace and stability.
But recent geopolitical developments, particularly the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have forced a reassessment. As defence budgets shrink, the readiness and ability of European militaries to respond even to traditional threats is now being called into question.
While Europe’s policy analysts and some governments increasingly acknowledge that the status quo in regional security and defence is no longer sustainable, opinions differ on whether compulsory military service has a role to play.
While Eastern European nations like Latvia and Lithuania have already reintroduced some form of conscription, the idea has been gaining traction in Western Europe.
Germany introduced mandatory conscription in 1956, requiring men over 18 to serve for a year. The practice was gradually phased out and ultimately abolished in 2011 as part of cost-saving measures, but various forms of compulsory military service are now being discussed once again.
Patrick Sensburg, President of the German Reserve Soldiers’ Association, told Euronews the country should introduce a compulsory year of service for young people.
“Germany needs a strong overall defence and the associated sustainability for a serious and credible deterrent,” he said. “It is not about reintroducing the old conscription, but rather a broad and general service that includes all levels of civil and military defence.”
He emphasised that this model would increase the number of reservists, ensuring a faster deployment rate and thus deterring potential aggressors.
Sensburg also acknowledged the significant costs associated with reintroducing compulsory service, but argued that inaction would be even more expensive.
For many years, European armed forces have operated on the assumption that any future conflicts would depend significantly on advanced technology.
ADVERTISEMENTLinda Slapakova, who leads the Defence Workforce and Armed Forces Community research portfolio at RAND Europe, highlighted the complexities of reintroducing national service.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has certainly made more countries consider new paths to strengthening military capability, which can include some form of conscription or national service,” she told Euronews.
However, she also emphasised that national service varies widely and does not always involve mandatory military service for all young people.
Some countries, like Austria, offer a choice between military and civilian service, a model that might be more feasible for other countries uneasy about the social and political implications of conscription or mandatory service.
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Among those who have reinstated mandatory service in recent years are Latvia, Lithuania, and Sweden.
Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Norway never suspended conscription.
Norway and Sweden have implemented what is called selective compulsory conscription, a system in which candidates for military service are chosen based on their motivation and qualifications.
Officials in the Netherlands and Germany have voiced their admiration for the “Swedish model” and indicated interest in implementing a similar form of mandatory service.
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Hanging over the whole debate, however, is the question of what policies European citizens are actually willing to accept.
The debate over conscription reflects broader questions about the role of military service in today’s society. A recent Gallup poll revealed that only 32% of European Union citizens would be willing to defend their country in the event of war.
“Even if conscription would help address issues with military recruitment, in many countries it could be socially and politically controversial to the point that it reinforces polarisation, leads to backlash or social/political unrest, and undermines the wider security benefits that could be gained from it,” says Slapakova.
While some countries view national service as a means to strengthen social cohesion and resilience, she said, those effects are hard to measure.
ADVERTISEMENTShe suggested that countries with individualistic cultures and little tradition of collective approaches to national security might struggle to implement conscription effectively in the short term.