BRUSSELS – Leaders converge on Brussels Thursday looking to seal the deal on the top jobs at the EU’s helm, just days before a nail-biting French election with the potential to send shockwaves across the bloc.
The lineup may come as little surprise to Europe-watchers: an inner group of key leaders already locked in a draft deal on a trio of names, with Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen tapped for five more years as European Commission chief.
On the eve of the two-day summit a European diplomat summed up the mood in Brussels, saying it now looked like “a straight road ahead” to lock in an agreement.
But that does not entirely rule out the potential for fireworks — with Italy’s far-right leader Giorgia Meloni and Hungary’s nationalist premier Viktor Orban making plain their outrage at being left out in the cold.
That is because the mooted deal divvies up posts among the alliance dominating the EU parliament: the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and its main allies the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the centrist Renew Europe.
In addition to returning the EPP’s von der Leyen as commission chief, it taps former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa of the S&D as European Council president, and Renew’s Kaja Kallas, the current Estonian premier, as the EU’s foreign policy “high representative”.
With France heading to the polls Sunday for round one of a snap election where the far right National Rally has its best-ever chance of leading the government, there was a palpable eagerness to get the EU jobs squared away.
One diplomat said leaders needed to wrap up their decision due to “uncertainty” ahead of the French vote.
Top jobs aside, the summit will touch on the geopolitical challenges facing the bloc — dominated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, whose leader Volodymyr Zelensky will join EU counterparts at the outset to ink an accord on long-term security commitments for Kyiv.
Beyond that, leaders are to sign off on a “strategic agenda” outlining priorities for the bloc that officials have been chewing over for weeks — intended as a roadmap for the incoming leadership.
Diplomats suggested that making more room in the guidelines for Meloni’s key wishes — such as curbing migration — could be one way to assuage her anger at being sidelined in the top jobs discussion.
Endorsed by six leaders acting as negotiators for their political families — including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz — the jobs deal now needs the buy-in of a weighted majority of 15 EU leaders.
So far so simple — in theory — since the centrist groups account for the lion’s share of the 27 leaders.
But the same names had emerged during a first meeting in Brussels last week, and leaders on that occasion failed to get over the finishing line.
Most vocal in her protests has been Meloni, who believes the success of her hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists grouping — which has overtaken Renew as the EU parliament’s third force — as well as Italy’s standing as the bloc’s third economy, should be reflected in its leadership.
She vented her anger once again in a speech to parliament Wednesday, charging that unnamed leaders were acting like “oligarchs” and betraying the will of the European people.
Short of a seat at the top table, Meloni has made clear she wants an influential role for Italy — starting with a vice-presidency in the next European Commission with a say over industry and agriculture.
Hungary’s Orban — whose Fidesz party is unaffiliated in the EU parliament — has likewise spoken out against the centrist deal, saying that “instead of inclusion, it sows the seeds of division.”
An official with the French presidency pushed back at that notion, insisting “nobody is being excluded” from decision-making on top jobs and that “contacts are naturally taking place with the Italian prime minister.”
“But there is also a political reality following the European elections which is the return of the coalition between EPP, S&D and Renew — a coalition that ECR does not belong to,” said the official.
Even with the centrists in a position of strength, however, diplomats said there was little appetite for railroading through a top jobs deal without a broader consensus — especially since von der Leyen still faces a tight parliament vote on her nomination in late July.