Poll-based trend forecast says Austria’s far right wins EU vote – Reuters
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party is the likely winner of the European parliament election, Reuters reports, citing a polling-based “trend forecast” that was carried out for Austrian broadcasters and a news agency and which was published when polling stations closed on Sunday.
The forecast, based on surveys of 3,600 people carried out in the past week for national broadcaster ORF, Puls 24 TV and APA showed the Freedom Party (FPO) in first place on 27.0% followed by the conservative People’s Party (OVP) on 23.5% and the Social Democrats (SPO) on 23.0%.
Key events
Kate Connolly
Exit polls from Germany, where voting booths closed at 6pm local time, show that the conservative CDU/CSU alliance has come out a clear victor, with 29.5-30% of the vote, giving them a decisive lead ahead of other parties.
The Greens look to have had a miserable performance by contrast, emerging with just 12-12.5 per cent of the vote, compared to 20.5 per cent in 2019, when they had the second strongest result.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has made very clear gains, with initial poll results showing that they are on track to secure 16-16.5%, compared to 11 per cent five years ago. This would put them ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD), who are currently estimated to have polled 14%, even worse than their historically-speaking poor result of 2019.
The European elections are the first polling test for Sahra Wagenknecht’s fledgling BSW party, and from this standing start have managed to secure 5.5-6 %, putting it on a level with the pro-business FDP.
In short, all three parties in Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Germany’s federal government, appear to have taken a bashing from voters.
Kate Connolly
National estimates just in from Germany indicate that the Greens have slumped in the polls, the far-right AfD is fighting for second place, while the Christian Democrats look likely to be the clear victor in the European parliament election.
CDU in lead in Germany, AfD in second place at 16.5%: exit poll
An exit poll has been published for Germany, Reuters reports.
Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): 29.5%
Alternative for Germany (AfD): 16.5%
Social Democratic party (SPD): 14%
Greens: 12%
Free Democrats: 5%
How does this compare to 2019?
In 2019, the CDU was at 28.9%, the SPD at 15.8% and AfD at only 11%.
As we wait for national estimates, here’s a bit of background on the political landscape in Austria.
Austrians vote to elect 20 members of the European parliament.
The far-right Freedom party was leading in opinion polls with around 29%.
It was followed by the Social Democratic party with about 22% and the Austrian People’s party with approximately 20%. NEOS is was at about 10%.
We’re now waiting for estimates for Austria, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Malta, the Netherlands. Stay tuned.
5. Slovakia
Another key race to keep an eye on is in Slovakia.
Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, was shot and seriously injured in May, in the most serious incident of violence against a head of government in Europe in decades.
The populist leader and his Smer party have come under scrutiny over the past months for moves critics say undermine media freedom and checks and balances. Fico’s rhetoric on foreign policy has also raised concerns that Bratislava is adopting a more Kremlin-friendly approach.
“It is necessary to vote for MEPs who will support peace initiatives and not the continuation of war,” Fico said in a social media post on Saturday as he voted at a Bratislava hospital.
The latest polls put Fico’s Smer slightly ahead of the opposition Progressive Slovakia, which is running on a pro-western platform.
4. Germany
In Germany, the performance of the far-right Alternative for Germany will be closely watched.
The AfD has been embroiled in a series of scandals over the past months, and was expelled from the far-right Identity and Democracy group in the European parliament, which brings together far-right such as France’s National Rally and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang.
The latest polls put the centre-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) at 30%, the Greens at 15%, the Social Democratic party (SPD) at 15% and the AfD at 14%.
Read more:
‘They call us Nazis’: inside the wealthy German town where the far right is on the rise
Sam Jones
3. Spain
In Spain, the right has sought to turn the European election into a referendum on the socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez.
“Let’s not put off until the general election what we can start doing in the European elections. Let’s start the change from Europe,” said the conservative People’s party leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
Ahead of the vote, public attention has focused on a saga embroiling the prime minister’s wife, Begoña Gómez, who is being investigated over allegations of corruption and influence-peddling, which Sánchez has dismissed as politically-motivated and totally baseless.
However, his opponents have used the allegations to ramp up pressure on Sánchez, whom they accuse of being self-serving, hypocritical and hellbent on retaining power.
In the aftermath of last year’s inconclusive general election, Sánchez managed to secure another term by performing a u-turn and promising Catalan pro-independence parties a controversial and divisive amnesty law in return for their support in returning him to office.
For Europe, political developments in Madrid are especially significant because Sánchez is one of the continent’s few socialist heads of government.
Portugal’s socialist prime minister, António Costa, resigned last November after an investigation was launched into alleged illegalities in his administration’s handling of large green investment projects. Portugal is now governed by the centre-right Democratic Alliance, which finished first in March’s snap general election.
Read more:
Spanish PM hits out at rivals after wife summoned over corruption allegations
2. Hungary
Another key race to watch is in Hungary.
While Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party is expected to garner the most votes in Hungary, the election being closely watched due to the rapid rise of Péter Magyar, a former government insider who recently launched an opposition movement.
Magyar has campaigned on an anti-corruption platform aimed at restoring democratic institutions. The prime minister has campaigned claiming a third world war could be imminent and presenting his party as the only political force that can preserve “peace” in Hungary.
The outcome of today’s voting is set to shape Hungary’s political landscape ahead of a national election in 2026.
Read more:
Hungarians rally for former ally leading the charge against Viktor Orbán’s rule
5 races to watch
While the EU elections involve 27 races, some are being watched particularly closely due to their possible impact on the political landscape both nationally and in Brussels.
Here are five races worth keeping an eye on:
1. France
The far-right National Rally, with its 28-year old lead candidate Jordan Bardella, is expected to get the most votes. The list led by Emmanuel Macron’s ally Valérie Hayer is trailing behind.
A Le Monde poll ahead of the election put National Rally at 33%, with Macron’s governing coalition at 16% and the Socialists together with Place Publique at 14.5%.
The results of today’s vote will set the stage for the 2027 presidential election campaign in France and could have a significant impact on public discussions around the rise of the far-right in Europe.
Read more:
‘You can feel a shift’: will the French be lured by Le Pen?
‘A paradigm shift’: will Jordan Bardella finally normalise Le Pen’s far right?
Good evening from the European parliament in Brussels!
I will be here with colleagues Jennifer Rankin and Lisa O’Carroll this evening, as we will report on election results and reactions. We will also be sharing reporting here from our colleagues across the continent.
At 6:15pm CET, we are expecting the first national estimates: for Austria, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, and Netherlands and Malta.
This will be followed by estimates for Bulgaria and Croatia at 7:15pm CET.
At 8:15pm, we expect estimates from Denmark, France and Spain.
At 9:15 pm, we expect national estimates for Poland, Portugal, Romania and Sweden.
What are national estimates? This will be data provided by Verian for the European parliament based on available exit polls, estimations or similar non-official data published in member states.
Results will follow later. We will keep you updated on both estimates and results as they come in.
With polls suggesting support for far-right and nationalist parties will surge in the European elections, campaigners are bracing for a political landscape that they fear could further stigmatise marginalised communities – and result in fewer MEPs of colour in parliament.
Campaigners have long warned that the European parliament is profoundly out of step with the demographic reality of Europe. While racialised minorities make up an estimated 10% of the EU’s population, MEPs from these groups accounted for just 4.3% of the total lawmakers in the last mandate, according to analysis by the European Network Against Racism.
The wide gap was exacerbated by Brexit, with the departure of the UK MEPs in 2020 sending the proportion of racialised minorities in the European parliament tumbling to 3.5% – just 25 of 705 MEPs, according to a 2020 analysis.
Ahead of a vote that is expected to see even fewer Black, Asian and minority ethnic MEPs elected, I spoke with several MEPs about their experiences of working in a parliament that was described by one MEP as “very much pale and male”:
With exit polls expected to start rolling in soon, here’s where things stand so far:
-
Today will see 21 countries in Europe go to the polls, including Italy which runs its ballot over two days. Among the countries voting today are the EU’s other big three economies: Spain, Germany and France.
-
Results of the European parliamentary elections won’t start to pour in until after 11pm CET when the last polls close in Italy. The big reveal will be between 11:15pm and 11:30pm, when we will get provisional results for 24 countries – all but Poland, Italy and Belgium.
-
But exit polls for Germany will be published at around 6:15pm CET, giving Europe the first indication of whether the expected surge for the far right materialises.
-
Turnout in Hungary was 33.14 at 1pm, according to the national election office. That’s up nearly 10 points from turnout at the same time in 2019, which stood at 24.01%, in an election that has pitted Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, against newcomer Tisza, led by former government insider Péter Magyar.
-
Voter turnout in France was 45.26% at 5pm, according to the country’s interior ministry. This was an increase from the same period in 2019, when it was 43.29%. The slight bump in turnout comes as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, is polling far behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.
-
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party is the likely winner of the European parliament election, Reuters reports, citing a polling-based “trend forecast” that was carried out for Austrian broadcasters and a news agency and which was published when polling stations closed on Sunday.
-
In the southwest German city of Karlsruhe, two members of the far-right AfD party were reportedly attacked on Saturday by a masked gang with baseball bats. Three people suffered “light injuries” according to authorities, who said five people had been arrested. The attack is the latest in a string of incidents involving violence against German politicians in the lead up to the European elections.
Poll-based trend forecast says Austria’s far right wins EU vote – Reuters
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party is the likely winner of the European parliament election, Reuters reports, citing a polling-based “trend forecast” that was carried out for Austrian broadcasters and a news agency and which was published when polling stations closed on Sunday.
The forecast, based on surveys of 3,600 people carried out in the past week for national broadcaster ORF, Puls 24 TV and APA showed the Freedom Party (FPO) in first place on 27.0% followed by the conservative People’s Party (OVP) on 23.5% and the Social Democrats (SPO) on 23.0%.
Voter turnout up by 2 points in France
Voter turnout in France was 45.26% at 5pm, according to the country’s interior ministry. This was an increase from the same period in 2019, when it was 43.29%.
The slight bump in turnout comes as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, is polling far behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.
The National Rally’s high score in European elections is not new, writes the Guardian’s Angelique Chrisafis. From the mid-1980s, it has traditionally done well in European votes and topped the poll in France in the last two European elections, in 2014 and in 2019.
One major difference this time is that the rise of other far-right parties across the EU can give the French equivalent more international clout. A second is that National Rally’s lead against Macron’s group is expected to be big – potentially more than 10% – whereas last time it was less than 1%. This would show not just that the far right has grown, but that Macron’s support has considerably fallen.
Chrisafis recently followed Jordan Bardella, the president of Le Pen’s National Rally, on the campaign trail, exploring whether the young politician hailed as the new face of the French far right could lead the party’s European election campaign to unprecedented heights: