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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is chief executive of the New America think-tank and an FT contributing editor
For all the uproar about a far-right surge in the European parliament elections, the outcome favours the reappointment of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who is a centrist. That prospect would continue her push towards a “geopolitical” Europe, which should cheer Ukraine, Nato and all advocates of a more active, influential Europe in global affairs. But the EU’s concept of Europe as a geopolitical actor includes a vision of threats to the Earth itself as well as to the nations on it, and an expanded understanding of the power needed to meet them.
Power is the new EU watchword. Speaking last month at a European University Institute conference, Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, announced that the EU must “learn to use the language of power” and be more assertive in the world. A report issued by the European Conclave in March concurs: “The European Union must dare to assert itself as a global, sustainable and responsible power and not only as a participant torn between other powers.”
But what kind of power? For all the emphasis on building defence capacity — the issuance of a European defence industrial strategy and an explosion of venture capital investment in European defence start-ups — the EU is unlikely to replicate the US military-industrial complex. American military technology and research spilled into the civilian sector, with the internet’s creation the prime example. In Europe the arrows are likely to point the other way, with an environmental-industrial complex, including energy, health and materials sectors, spilling over into a new generation of arms.
Consider a recent joint statement by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on “strengthening European sovereignty”. They focus on competitiveness, building a foundation for global industrial and technological leadership. Instead of a continent bristling with arms, they reaffirm the ambition of making the EU the “first climate-neutral continent”.
Russia poses the greatest threat to Europe’s freedom, as it has shown that it is once again willing to take up arms to conquer territory. Yet climate change is a greater existential threat to lives and lifestyles than Russia, China, Iran, North Korea or all four of those nations put together. Another pandemic could similarly wipe out millions and again upend the global economy. Europe also faces transnational threats such as food and energy security and terrorism that the 2022 US National Security Strategy identifies as sitting at “the very core of national and international security”.
The German response to this much more complex set of threats is the concept of “integrated security”, defined in the German National Security Strategy in three dimensions: “protection from war and violence”; “the freedom to be able to shape our lives, our democracy the way we want”; and “focusing on people’s individual security needs”, using the rights of women and vulnerable groups as a social barometer.
Against the backdrop of this bold, prescient redefinition of what national security means and requires, Macron and Scholz’s prescriptions for how the EU can become an environmental and technological power, by “making the Green Deal and the digital transition a success”, position the EU militarily as well as economically. A full Green Deal will end the EU’s dependence on Russian energy, while building new trade and diplomatic relationships with countries across Africa and the Middle East. A digital transition that builds a tech sector around “AI, quantum technologies, space, 5G/6G, biotechnologies, net zero technologies, mobility and chemicals” will be a Europe with the prosperity and dynamism necessary to provide butter and guns for all its people.
American tech titans are likely to scoff. Note, however, that the obstacles to increased competitiveness and technology development are less the absence of funds than the continued presence of national trade and financial barriers. The EU is simply not a single market when it comes to military procurement or technological development, nor has it yet achieved a unified capital market and fiscal union. Removing these barriers will be hard, but easier than mobilising billions in new funding. Even now, Europe is leading or globally competitive in quantum applications, 5G/6G technologies and net zero technologies.
The US and China are economic and military great powers. The EU is charting a path towards being the world’s first integrated security power, equally capable of protecting itself against military and non-military existential threats.