European Parliament at the crossroads: A swing to the Right

About 180 million people, accounting for a little less than 51 per cent of the 357 million citizens of the 27 member countries of the European Union (EU) eligible to vote, exercised their right in the elections held from June 6-9. They voted to elect 720 members of the European Parliament (EP). Next only to India in which a total of 642 million people representing 66 per cent of the 970 million eligible voters exercised their franchise in the parliamentary elections in 2024, this is the largest democratic electoral exercise to choose representatives anywhere in the world.

The biggest takeaway of the European parliamentary election was the steep rise in support for the Right-wing parties in several countries. It had been anticipated for several months before the election that the Right-leaning parties would significantly increase their numbers in the elections to the European Parliament this year. Reasons for this are several. They range from differences on continuing the support to Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia, Euro-scepticism, diverse views on climate change and the Green Deal, illegal migration, relations with Russia, pushback against China, etc.

Although a significant increase in the seats for the Right and far-Right did take place, it was not as widespread as it was predicted or feared. Moreover, it was not an EU-wide increase in numbers but limited to a few countries. The countries where the rise of the Right was the most striking were France, Italy, Germany and Austria. Right parties increased their presence significantly in Belgium, Poland, Netherlands and Spain and some other countries as well.

The immediate impact of this surge to the Right was the announcement of snap elections by French President Emmanuel Macron which will be held on June 30 and July 7. The increase in popularity of Marine le Pen’s National Rally (NR) far-Right Party in France was principally at the expense of President Macron’s centrist Renaissance Party. Macron has taken a high risk gamble by embarking on this path, the final outcome of which is quite uncertain.

The biggest winner from the election was Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy and leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group in the Parliament. Meloni has emerged as the kingmaker and a prominent voice in EU politics in Brussels.

It is, however, a moot point whether all the diverse and disparate Right-leaning groups in the Parliament viz. the far-Right Identity and Democracy (I&D) led by Marine Le Pen; Meloni’s ECR; Alternative for German (AfD) (which was expelled from I&D a few weeks ago) and some unattached members like Hungarian PM Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party will be able to come together under a single umbrella to pursue a common agenda in the Parliament.

The election results also led to the resignation of the liberal Belgian PM Alexander de Croo who is a part of the Renew Group led by President Macron in the European Parliament. He suffered a humiliating defeat in the federal, regional and European Parliament elections at the hands of the far-right and right parties.

In addition to the Renew Group of President Macron which saw its count in the Parliament brought down by 20 seats, the other big loser was the Green Group which also lost about 20 seats, principally in Germany and France, both of which have been strongholds of the Green Parties. After five years during which Brussels made the Green Deal its signature issue, voters turned against ecologically minded parties. The Greens had some good news coming from the Nordics (Sweden, Denmark and Finland) where they held or improved their positions.

Greens and Left-leaning parties emerged as winners in the Nordic EU members, underlying how environmental issues remain a focus of concern for many in that region. The Right and the far-Right emerged as losers in the Nordics possibly because they are part of the ruling coalitions in Sweden and Finland. In Sweden, the far-Right Sweden Democrats, who have been gaining support for years and became the second-largest party in the 2022 national elections, came in fourth place in these elections. As a result of these changes, the Green group dropped in size from the fourth to the sixth largest party in the chamber.

Notwithstanding the impressive performance of the far-Right, the right-centre European People’s Party (EPP) not only retained but also improved its position as the largest party in the European Parliament. It added 14 more seats to its numbers to increase its tally from 176 to 190 seats. From its position of power, the EPP will be well placed to set EU policy, tilting the agenda to the Right. “We are the party of industry, we are the party of rural areas, we are the farmers’ party of Europe,” said Manfred Weber, the leader of the EPP Group in the Parliament.

While the EPP could once again join a grand coalition with the socialists and liberals, it could also negotiate a working relationship on some issues with parties further to the Right like Meloni’s ECR — if it can do so without alienating its centrist allies.

The Results of the Elections

The final position of the different Parliamentary Groups after the elections is as follows:

Participation: 51.08% (+0.42%)

The various Groups in the Parliament represent a whole spectrum of policies, positions and views as follows:

The European People’s Party (EPP): The EPP, a centre-right group, has been the largest group within the European Parliament since the 1999 elections. It obtained 176 seats in 2019 and 190 in 2024, an increase of 14. EPP represents about 26 per cent of the total strength of the Parliament. The EPP is strongly pro-European and in favour of further integration. The group stands for having a common market that acts competitively on the international stage while promoting the welfare of people worldwide. The German Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union are its main constituents.

Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D): This Group consists of various social-democratic or labour parties. With around 136 members, the S&D is the second-largest group in Parliament. Focus of this Group is on building an inclusive European society based on equality, solidarity and justice. In addition, it strives to improve living and working conditions and ensure more employment.

Renew Europe: A new group that brings together the liberal and liberal-democratic parties in the EU. Macron’s Renaissance Party is the major constituent of this Group. Because of the stinging defeat suffered by Macron, the strength of this Group reduced drastically from 102 in 2019 to 80 in recent elections leading to Macron calling for snap elections. This is the third largest group in Parliament. The core values of the Renew Europe group are democracy, sustainability and prosperity.

European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): This Group consists of conservative political parties. The group split from the EPP in 2009. In the 2019 elections, the group won 69 seats, largely occupied by members of the Polish Law and Justice party. In the current election, it increased its seat strength principally on the strength of PM Meloni’s Brothers of Italy Party. Its constituency consists of a combination of social conservatives and supporters of economic liberalism. It is not outright Eurosceptic. In particular, it emphasises a commitment to economic cooperation and free trade but restricts cooperation in other areas. It is supportive of extending assistance to Ukraine but is staunchly against illegal migration. It has emerged as the fourth largest Group in the Parliament.

Identity & Democracy (I&D): This is the youngest group in Parliament. It was formed in June 2019 by the Danish People’s Party, the Finnish Party, Germany’s AfD, and Italy’s Lega. Other parties later joined, including Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, France’s Rassemblement National (National Rally NR), Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ), and Geert Wilders’ Dutch Freedom party (PVV). AfD was thrown out of I&D in May, 2024 on account of some scandalous comments by its leaders. The strength of I&D increased by a whopping 9 seats from 49 to 58 principally through additional wins by NR of France making it the fifth-largest group in Parliament. Known as euro-critical, the I&D group is composed of nationalist, (extreme) right-wing parties that were originally members of the conservative ECR. Its central focus is on preserving the national sovereignty of all member states and opposing further integration by limiting the number of EU competencies. In addition, the group favours a stricter migration policy and wants to end the accession negotiations with Turkey. I&D is the more radical and anti-EU of the two hard-right groups in the parliament.

The Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA): This group is a merger between two parties, the European Greens and the European Free Alliance. With 52 wins in 2024 it registered a massive decline of 19 members from its strength of 71 MEPs in 2019. This Group has faced the heaviest defeats, particularly in France and Germany. In this Group, human rights, social justice and the environment are central. This slipped to the sixth largest Group in the Parliament.

European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL): Finally, with 39 seats, this is the smallest group in Parliament. This left-to-far-left group consists mainly of parties with socialist and sometimes even communist backgrounds. The GUE/NGL group has euro-sceptic traits, but not in the same manner as the I&D group. The scepticism manifests in an anti-capitalist perspective rather than a desire for more national sovereignty. Thus, while the group favours further European integration, it opposes the current neoliberal nature of the EU. GUE/NGL aims to promote cooperation between stronger and weaker member states and more attention should be paid to the environment.

Non-Inscrits (Non-attached members): Not all MEPs are members of a political group. They are called non-attached. There are currently 98 non-attached Members from a wide variety of political backgrounds including members of the German AfD, Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, Poland’s Confederation, populist Italian Five Star Movement and the Greek Communist Party. It is much more difficult for non-attached members to take initiatives that require a minimum number of members.

Results in Major Member-States

Macron’s Renew Europe group, the third pillar of the three-way grand coalition that dominated the Parliament during the past five years, got hit badly in the elections. Macron’s party imploded as voters expressed their frustration with the national government by voting for the far-right.

The group’s Spanish subsidiary, Ciudadanos, disappeared altogether: The seven seats it had in the Parliament were all absorbed into the centre-right People’s Party. Losses were also noted among related groups in Romania, Denmark and Estonia. France’s foreign minister said that President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap elections after the far right’s triumph in the European elections was not “a poker move” but “a bet on confidence in the French people”. It was stated that Macron did not take lightly the decision to dissolve the lower house of parliament and call for early elections, which are to start with a first round on June 30 and a second round on July 7.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged the dismal performance of the three governing parties that are part of his center-left government and added that the success of the far-right in the European election in Germany and other European countries was worrisome. The next national election in Germany is expected to take place next year in the fall, and Scholz’s government rejected calls by the far-right AfD, that it should call for early elections like France. The AfD credited its success to understanding voters’ worries like migration, the war in Ukraine, or the party’s opposition to climate friendly regulations. The AfD has been exploiting fears over migration by lobbying for tough rules and quick deportations of those who don’t qualify for asylum.

The centre-right Union bloc took 30 per cent of the vote. AfD came second with 15.9 per cent while Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats won only 13.9 per cent of the vote for their worst post-World War II showing in a nationwide election. His two coalition partners, the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats, took a massive hit with 11.9 per cent and 5.2 per cent respectively. All were significantly below their results in Germany’s 2021 national election. The Greens suffered painful losses compared with the 2019 European election.

Italian PM Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party received the largest number of votes with 28.5 per cent of the vote, while the centre-left opposition Democratic Party (PD) was second with 23.7 per cent. The other main opposition party, the 5-Star Movement, won 10.5 per cent, while Forza Italia, founded by late premier Silvio Berlusconi, was fourth with 10 per cent, followed by the far-Right League at 8.3 per cent.

Leyen’s bid for second term as EU chief

Ursula von der Leyen said that she will speak to socialists and liberals in the European Parliament as she seeks a second term as president of the European Union’s executive branch, but did not say who else she will or won’t seek a deal with. Von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party defended its position as the Parliament’s strongest group in Sunday’s election. But it is far short of a majority, and von der Leyen will need both a nomination by national leaders and approval by a majority in the legislature for another five-year term at the helm of the European Commission. Center-left politicians in Germany warned her against seeking the support of hard-right groups such as Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s party.

Implications for India

Since 1979, the European Parliament has been directly elected every five years by the citizens of the European Union through universal suffrage. Its influence and authority has increased over time.

Relations between India and the EU as well as with several EU Member States in economic, trade, technology, security and strategic terms have been expanding rapidly. India is pro-actively engaged in concluding an India-EU FTA in the very near future. India and EU and several member States agreed at the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September last year that they will cooperate to establish the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, a multi-modal transport network to connect Europe with India via West Asia.

As has been observed, although the right wing parties in different countries have increased their presence significantly in the EP, the EPP continues to be the most dominant and influential.

India will need to carefully monitor developments in the institutions of the EU, particularly the European Parliament to ensure that it does not get singed by some unexpected decisions flowing out of this Body. Most EU countries and Institutions are keen to enhance their engagement with India in the areas of trade, investments, security, technology etc. particularly since China has emerged as an increasing threat and an assertive and unreliable partner.

Conclusion

Before the elections, the polls were predicting a big surge for the Right. While Right-wing parties did make gains, their success was largely driven by electoral dynamics in a few countries, notably the big ones viz. Germany, France and Italy. All parties to the right including EPP, ECR, I&D witnessed an increase in their numbers, while those to the Left registered a decline, most visible in the Green and Renew Europe Groups. Much of this was driven by the electoral dynamics in France and Germany.

The Right under-performed in several countries including Belgium, Poland and Sweden. The Green and Left Parties outperformed the projections in many other countries including Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. But their gains were more than offset by the collapse of the German and French Greens who saw their vote share halved, compared to 2019.

The overall picture of the elections has been complicated by a general fragmentation of European politics. This is demonstrated by the fact that only the EPP has more than 20 per cent of the total number of MEPs while the six other Groups individually account for only between 5 per cent and 20 per cent of the total strength of the Parliament. Even the number of non-Inscrit MEPs has increased dramatically. The European Right of ECR, I&D and some parties in the non Inscrit category is divided on a number of issues including Ukraine and European Integration. Countering Immigration is the only subject that brings these Groups on the same platform. The European Centre comprising EPP, S&D and Renew Europe which worked together to elect Ursula von der Leyen for her first term in 2019 is also increasingly divided on the Green New Deal, Immigration and further European Expansion.

The Right did well in the elections but the aggregate numbers disguise some significant intra-European variations and the Parliament’s wider fragmentation. This promises to make governing and choosing a new Commission President much more difficult and challenging than has been the case in recent years.

The writer is executive council member, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, president, Institute of Global Studies, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.