EU government leaders have overwhelmingly backed German former defence minister Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the European Commission. Now she needs to convince MEPs.
It is becoming increasingly clear that Ursula von der Leyen will need the support of the Greens as she seeks a second term as European Commission president, forcing the nominee into a delicate balancing act as she does the rounds in Brussels ahead of a confirmatory vote next week.
After a second meeting with von der Leyen in as many weeks, Greens/EFA co-president Bas Eickhout told reporters on Wednesday evening (10 July) that discussions over her political priorities were moving “in the right direction” but that she could not yet take his group’s support for granted.
The German politician is due to outline her programme for the next EU executive in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 18 July.
She needs to win support from an absolute majority of the newly elected lawmakers, or 361 votes, following her nomination by all EU heads of government bar Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
With the liberal Renew group and the Socialists & Democrats, to whom she promptly offered an olive branch when her own European People’s Party came top in the EU election a month ago, von der Leyen theoretically has a potential 401 votes in the bag.
But she cannot be sure of blanket support even within her own group, with a sizeable contingent visibly disgruntled by the flagship European Green Deal of the outgoing administration, and upsetting some of them is a chance she may have to take.
The 136-strong S&D, whose support the president designate undoubtedly needs, has made clear in ‘key demands’ published on Tuesday, the day before von der Leyen’s second meeting with the Greens, that climate targets and environmental legislation – which includes a Nature Restoration Law that the EPP tried to block – “must remain in place”.
The centre-left group explicitly mentioned the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 and the EU Deforestation Regulation – both of which the EPP has signalled it wants to revisit in the coming months.
The Renew group also insisted on the need to “respect the Green Deal”, during its own exchange of views with von der Leyen yesterday. Another red line shared by the liberals, S&D and Greens – cooperation with populist and nationalist factions – limits her room to seek alternative support on the right.
During their meeting, Renew extracted a promise from the Commission president that she would not engage in any “structured cooperation” with the European Conservatives and Reformists group set up by the now-departed UK Tory party and now dominated by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party.
Von der Leyen had actively courted the populist Italian premier in the run-up to the EU election, and plans to meet the group next week ahead of the parliamentary vote.
“Renew Europe has grave concerns about the EPP’s willingness to make deals with the far-right in this house and we urge a change of course,” group president Valérie Hayer said after the meeting, despite the German politician’s assurances.
The Greens have also demanded von der Leyen draw a clear line between herself and the eurosceptic ECR. (Working with either of two new far-right groups –Orbán’s Patriots and the smaller Europe of Sovereign Nations led by the controversial Alternative for Germany (AfD) – would clearly be beyond the pale.)
While the need for support from the second largest group in the parliament, the S&D, would appear to be self-evident, both the Greens and Renew have stressed that von der Leyen will also be dependent on backing from their respective 53 and 77 MEPs.
“Without our support, no stable pro-European majority is possible,” Hayer said.
Eickhout pointed to the fact that von der Leyen had spoken to the four centrist parties first. “I think that order tells you something about what her intention is,” he said. He did not see “any other option” for her than producing a democratic, centrist political programme acceptable to her own group, the S&D, Renew and the Greens.
Von der Leyen, then, is in the position of having to produce ‘political guidelines’ that the Socialists & Democrats, the Renew Europe liberals, and the Greens can publicly support without losing face – while not alienating too many members of her own centre-right group.
She has exactly one week to pull it off.