As Europe readies itself to head to the polls next June, Euronews Next assesses whether AI technology could potentially wreak havoc on the EU’s political stability.
Since artificial intelligence (AI) took our lives by storm earlier this year, the technology has been branded a double-edged sword, capable of opening new horizons and giving us creative and at times comedic tools.
But it has also been a disrupter, as many worry it could potentially displace millions from their jobs and further fuel the dissemination of misinformation.
The political sphere is among the many facets of society that are highly susceptible to the influence of AI. With the European elections around the corner, could the new technology stand to wreak havoc?
Euroscepticism and the 2024 elections
The European Parliament elections, slated for June 6-9, 2024, will be the first to be shaped by AI technology. They come at a particularly important time in the global democratic calendar, as roughly half of the world’s population will be casting their ballot next year.
Europeans will be heading to the polls as the world’s delicate geopolitical stability hangs in the balance.
War rages at our doorsteps: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which started in February 2022, still rattles on, while Israel still fights Gaza. The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a cost-of-living crisis, leaving countless families across the continent struggling to make ends meet. And, unsurprisingly, most people are not exactly content with the current state of affairs.
The last few years have already seen upheavals underway as populist politics proliferate and Eurosceptic movements, bolstered by a string of crises in the 2010s and early 2020s, exert a strong presence.
Analysts have found that Europe’s current predicament makes it the perfect powder keg for a populist hurricane come next spring.
“The actual context – marked by growing inequality and raging culture wars – provides fertile ground for Eurosceptic forces, which can now either continue or return to blame EU elites for a dire state of affairs,” Andrea Pirro, a political science professor at the University of Bologna, told Euronews Next.
Euroscepticism, a controversial term born within the British media milieu of the 1980s, has been adopted by political scientists to describe movements that oppose or object to many aspects of the European project and the process of integration more generally.
While some experts have questioned its existence as a distinct movement – noting the term’s loaded use as a way to blindly categorise any critic of the EU – they have mostly identified a tangible growth of anti-European sentiment following the Treaty of Maastricht in 1992, spiking in the 2000s and 2010s following the financial crisis and Syrian Civil War, and culminating with the UK’s decision to leave the bloc following the 2016 Brexit referendum.
EU critical sentiments have tended to be most heavily espoused by non-governing populist parties, that are rapidly increasing their voter base and occasionally even winning elections.
Indeed, while the moderate centre-right European People’s Party, followed by the centre-leftist Socialists & Democrats, still lead the polls, a Politico survey analysis showed that right-wing populists will likely increase their share of seats in the next elections.
Given the current forecasts, Euroscepticism is likely to remain a potent force come June 2024.
“Euroscepticism across Europe will see a rebirth next year as we get closer to the European elections,” said Marius Ghincea, a political science researcher at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence.
“In particular, we should expect significant gains across the continent, across Eastern and Western European countries.”
Could AI change the course of the European elections?
“Is it true that you have many body doubles?” a student asked Russian President Vladimir Putin during a televised interview earlier this month, according to Reuters.
Except, the words came straight from Putin’s own mouth – at least, an AI-generated version of him.
ADVERTISEMENTAI technology has increasingly blurred the lines between fact and fiction, creating quasi-realistic (or often, outright believable) imagery. Among these are “deep fakes”, images and videos created in the likeness of another individual.
Deepfakes have often been used for comedic or satirical purposes, such as when British broadcaster Channel 4 sparked controversy in 2020 by creating a fake Christmas message showing Queen Elizabeth II dancing and taking shots at other Royal Family members.
Generative AI technology can also create images depicting public figures in a variety of farcical scenarios. Among its most prominent victims was the Holy Father himself, with fake images of Pope Francis donning Balenciaga puffers or taking to the turntables at a rave party doing the rounds online.
Such AI-generated pictures can be the source of harmless humour, but within a tense political context, the risk for decidedly harmful ramifications is severe.
One EU cybersecurity agency, ENISA, has already called for vigilance, noting the recent rise of AI tools, including ‘chatbots’ such as ChatGPT, and 2,580 related cybersecurity incidents from July 2022 to June 2023.
ADVERTISEMENT“Trust in the EU electoral process will critically depend on our capacity to rely on cybersecure infrastructures and on the integrity and availability of information,” said Juhan Lepassaar, ENISA’s executive director, in an official statement.
“Now, it is up to us to ensure we take the necessary actions to achieve this sensitive yet essential goal for our democracies.”
Over the past decade, anti-EU populist parties have often relied heavily on the use of social media to attract support, and researchers feel AI could become the latest tool at their disposal.
“Eurosceptic parties have traditionally carried out smear campaigns against EU elites and Europhile opponents,” said Pirro.
“AI will inevitably facilitate the creation of such content, making them look more real as technology progresses.”
ADVERTISEMENTIn the UK, for instance, the pro-Brexit Leave campaign relied heavily on social media to criticise the EU. Investigations subsequently found that various misleading or inaccurate statements, or “fake news”, were widely disseminated online and that automated bots on platforms such as Twitter (now known as X) increased in the lead-up to the referendum.
Whether Eurosceptic forces will be able to harness AI to their advantage, nevertheless, remains to be seen.
“AI is a tool that can be used either for or against populist objectives across Europe,” Ghincea said.
“If it will foment Euroscepticism or not across Europe depends on how effective and fast mainstream and radical parties deploy it for achieving their own objectives.”
‘Politicised technology’ facing regulation
The general public may not be braced to face the full force of AI, but the EU has certainly been thinking about it.
ADVERTISEMENTDeemed a “global first” in the campaign to regulate AI at a legislative level, the European Parliament and EU Council managed to strike a provisional deal called the Artificial Intelligence Act earlier this month, following years of discussions, which was given the green light by the parliament on 14 December.
Among the many aspects that the act aims to cover is the threat posed by certain “unacceptable” and “high” risk tools, which will either be banned or assessed before being released to the public.
But it’s been subject to mixed reaction, with criticism from the tech sector. Its fate remains uncertain as three of the EU’s most powerful players – Germany, France, and Italy – have expressed their discontent.
Marinus Ossewaarde, an associate sociology professor at the University of Twente in the Netherlands said that AI could affect democratic decision-making over the next few years, especially if governments fail to regulate it.
“AI is a thoroughly politicised technology. Almost all governments in this world today have their AI strategies. AI is not some sort of neutral tool but it is a political force backed by billions of euros,” he told Euronews Next.
ADVERTISEMENT“If the metaverse will be left in the hands of big tech oligarchs (as has previously been decided with social media platforms) to serve corporate purposes, then this has the massive potential to kill off democratic life,” he warned.
But if it is regulated to revitalise democratic life, it could become “a democratising force”.