Last Saturday, a van pulled up near the foot of the Eiffel Tower, where its occupants unloaded its contents: five coffins tagged with words “French soldiers from Ukraine.”
The caskets did not contain human remains, though, and the van’s Bulgarian driver told police he had been paid €120 ($178) to empty his funereal freight at the Parisian landmark. Still, images of the coffins arranged in a U shape went viral.
Political stunts such as this one have become increasingly common in Paris in recent months, and most have been linked to Russian interference aimed at creating division among the French themselves. Ever since Emmanuel Macron refused in February to rule out sending French troops to Ukraine, catching even his NATO allies off-guard, Russia has been on a war footing against the French President.
In the run-up to Sunday’s European Parliament elections, Mr. Macron has repeatedly warned voters in his country about the risks of backing Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN), which opposes deeper French engagement in Ukraine. “If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe,” the President said.
Yet not even the highly charged symbolism of the commemorations of the 80th anniversary of D-Day seems to have taken the wind out of the RN’s sails. Ms. Le Pen’s party is projected to romp to victory over Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party with about a third of the popular vote, twice Renaissance’s expected score.
“With us, Madame von der Leyen will never have the power to send the sons of France to risk their lives in combat,” Jordan Bardella, the RN’s star 28-year-old tête de liste insisted at a rally last weekend, referring to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Mr. Macron has pushed for a common European defence policy, even envisioning the creation of “a true European army.” Nationalists consider such an idea heretical.
That is not the only reason the RN and its far-right peers in other EU countries are expected to win more seats than ever, and possibly hold the balance of power, in the 720-member European Parliament. A voter backlash against its immigration and environmental policies is undermining the European Union just when it has never been more necessary. The EU was conceived as a bulwark against the nationalist impulses that led to two world wars fought on European soil. Those impulses are back, in a big way.
Ms. Le Pen and her political parallel in Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, no longer advocate withdrawing their countries from the EU. But they do seek to halt further integration and neuter bureaucrats in Brussels. They also want to halt the EU’s ability to sanction members that spurn democratic norms or minority rights. Hungary and Poland are repeat offenders; Ms. Meloni’s pro-traditional family, anti-LGBTQ policies are on the borderline. “There are margins to build a different majority in the European Parliament, and thus a different Europe, with different policies,” Ms. Meloni told Italian public broadcaster RAI on Monday.
But whether that majority would include Ms. Le Pen’s party is another matter, despite the RN leader’s pleas for a post-election alliance.
“I think Madame Meloni and I agree on the essentials, notably on taking back control of our respective countries,” Ms. Le Pen told an Italian newspaper last week. “It’s time to unite … If we can do that, we will become the second-largest group in the European Parliament.”
Ms. Meloni has emerged as a skillful diplomat since becoming Italy’s PM in 2022. She has also been a strong supporter of EU military aid to Ukraine. She worked closely with Ms. von der Leyen to win approval in the European Parliament in April for the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which requires EU countries to accept their share of migrants arriving on European shores, or pay part of the costs of hosting them.
The pact is a political winner for Ms. Meloni in her home country, which has been the prime arrival point for migrants crossing from Africa. But the agreement is a non-starter for Ms. Le Pen and other far-right leaders who call for closing Europe’s borders to migrants altogether.
Still, Ms. Meloni and Ms. Le Pen could team up with other far- and centre-right parties in the European Parliament to roll back EU environmental rules – the subject of massive farmer protests in most EU countries this year. They also could join forces with centre-right parties to repeal an EU law adopted last year to ban the sale of new fossil-fuel vehicles in 2035.
“Our Europe can die,” Mr. Macron warned in an April speech that set out the stakes involved in these European elections.
He’s right – if not in one fell swoop, then, after Sunday’s vote, perhaps by a thousand cuts.