Solo Flight: Take-Off at Blenheim

Europeans are getting used to a post-Atlantic security order.

Blenheim is the misspelled German name for a quintessentially British place. The lavish palace and sculpted grounds were built to reward the Duke of Marlborough for his victory in 1704 in the Bavarian town of Blindheim, which saved Vienna in the war of the Spanish Succession. 

Now Blenheim—which, among other things, is the birthplace of Britain’s wartime leader Winston Churchill—is preparing for the fourth summit of the European Political Community (EPC). This French initiative aims to bring the European Union together with non-EU members, including tiddlers such as Iceland, Georgia, Kosovo, and Albania, and with the key Nato allies Britain, Norway, and (in theory, though so far fruitlessly) Turkey. 

The battle for Blenheim cemented Britain’s position as a force in European security after the disruption of the previous century. This included civil war and numerous humiliations, including having to import a new royal family from the continent. The shindig at Blenheim on July 18, with nearly 50 national leaders attending, may do the same for the United Kingdom following nearly a decade of disruption following Brexit. 

The new, stable center-left government focussed on boring competence stands in sharp contrast to rudderless Germany and France. Britain is also one of the continent’s military heavyweights, with nuclear weapons, world-class intelligence and special forces, and elements of excellence in other parts of its armed forces. 

One development to watch for would be for Britain to join (and therefore, it is hoped, fix) the dysfunctional French-German-Polish Weimar Triangle. An EPC defense group could boost Europe’s contribution to NATO and help for Ukraine. The new British government is already schmoozing hard. The Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, wants a broad security and defense agreement with the EU. He made his first ministerial trip to Berlin, Warsaw, and Stockholm. He will attend the EU’s foreign affairs council meeting in October.

Nothing substantive will happen immediately: for the last six months of this year, the European Union’s rotating presidency is in the hands of Hungary, where the government is (put politely) geopolitically wayward. But from January, Poland will be in charge, followed by similarly hawkish Denmark. That will provide a good backdrop for horse trading. Britain’s security clout may blunt the Commission’s characteristically hardnosed approach to issues such as fishing quotas. 

The Duke of Marlborough might have recognized their uniforms, banners, and badges, but he would have had something caustic to say about the current capabilities of Britain’s armed forces. Unseaworthy warships, decrepit fighting vehicles, slender stockpiles, and an acute manpower shortage have dented their credibility and pose huge, painful choices for the defense review promised by the new government. Defence chiefs admit publicly that Britain could not fight a war for more than two months. After that, presumably, we face a choice between nuclear Armageddon, surrender, or (most likely, given the history of the last century) imploring the Americans to help us.  

But will they? Looming over the Blenheim meeting is the US presidential election. The Biden administration’s dithering over Ukraine has already dented faith in the transatlantic security guarantee. The prospect of Donald Trump’s re-election highlights Europe’s weakness. His aides and allies say bluntly (and truthfully) that China is the bigger threat, and that rich Europeans should do more to defend themselves. 

Europe can certainly do that, given time. But it will radically change the geopolitical landscape, especially if Britain and the hawkish countries in Europe’s east and north form a durable alliance. The big loser at Blenheim was the Franco-Bavarian alliance. The big winners were the British and the Hapsburgs. Something for Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz to note as they admire the architecture.

Edward Lucas is a Non-resident Senior Fellow and Senior Adviser at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.