Until a few months ago, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was a lead candidate in the race to replace Jens Stoltenberg as secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), but her reputation as a Russia hawk scuttled her chances.
Influential NATO member states, many from the European Union, agreed that with the war in Ukraine, it was no longer possible to keep the eastern members on the fringe in Brussels’ hierarchy. However, there were concerns that handing the top security job to a Baltic leader was too strong a message for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, the possibility of a change in US leadership and calculations over who could best deal with Donald Trump should he win the November presidential election was also an issue.
Kallas took it on the chin and endorsed Mark Rutte as the next NATO boss. However, observers suspected her nonchalant exit was part of an agreement that paved the way for her to enter the office of the EU high representative for foreign policy.
Kallas, 47, was one of the first EU leaders to sound the alarm about Putin’s expansionist designs, warning colleagues against falling into the “trap” of believing good trade relations with Moscow could avert the crisis that Europe later found itself in when Russia invaded Ukraine.
“Her nomination proves that now she represents the mainstream view in EU capitals,” said Merili Arjakas, a fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS), a think tank in Tallinn, Estonia.
Kallas’ credentials and instincts seem to have turned into assets as the EU decided to step out of its comfort zone and prepare against the Russian threat. Some are even mulling whether to bring back military conscription.
What are Kallas’s foreign policy priorities?
Several experts told DW that Kallas is the right pick at the right time in terms of foreign policy, mostly because, over the next five years, the EU’s focus will be on strengthening defenses against Russia.
As the prime minister of Estonia, a tiny country that was part of the Soviet Union until 1991, and the daughter of a woman who was deported to Siberia as a baby, Kallas understands all too well what could happen if Ukraine lost its war with Russia or was forced to cede territory.
Her top priority as the EU’s chief diplomat will be ensuring that Europeans are prepared to prevent future Russian advances.
The war in Ukraine has exposed many of Europe’s vulnerabilities, including inadequate ammunition production and gaps in satellite-based surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.
Kallas has suggested joint borrowing by the EU to fund the expansion of defense capabilities. While France’s President Emmanuel Macron has backed the idea, it will be harder for her to convince fiscally prudent states like Germany. Reports suggest she may have raised it in February in Hamburg with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
However, there are already concerns over potential turf wars within the bloc and whether Kallas’ focus on Russia might steal the thunder of incoming NATO chief Rutte.
“In terms of a military crisis, it is important who gives orders to whom and how the chain of command really works. That is NATO, militarily,” she said in March in a bid to clarify. “But boosting the defense industry is where the European Union also has a say.”
Kallas’s bigger challenge will be defining her foreign policy vision in other areas, such as dealing with Iran, China, and the Middle East.
No particular policy?
Kristi Raik, deputy director at the ICDS, the Estonian think tank, said Kallas will have a critical view of China and Iran but will also judge them based on their ties with Moscow.
“I think China will be an issue where the EU is kind of developing its approach regarding transatlantic relations,” said Raik. “Iran, I don’t think she will strongly formulate a view. But with Iran now being a close partner of Russia and being an authoritarian regime, that will be the basic starting point.”
Raik added that Kallas will take great care in pushing for a multilateral, rules-based world order.
“She comes from a small state, so it’s very natural for her to lay strong emphasis on a rules-based order where international agreements are valid and norms respected.”
Others, however, have said that while that approach may work in the context of the threat Russia poses to smaller Baltic states, it could be controversial when it comes to conflicts in the Middle East.
In May, Estonia voted in favor of a United Nations General Assembly resolution upgrading Palestininian status from that of an observer to full membership. An Israeli source told DW that while little was known about Kallas in Tel Aviv, Estonia’s vote had been noted.
“Kallas personally hasn’t been vocal about foreign policy questions other than Russia,” Merili Arjakas of the ICDS added. “In any case, it will come down to what the EU decides as a whole on major foreign policy questions.”
Will Kallas pursue a ‘feminist foreign policy’?
And then there is the question of whether she will pursue a so-called feminist foreign policy.
Even among feminists, there is a debate about whether a feminist foreign policy merely encourages the inclusion of women in positions of power, fights for their rights through diplomatic tools and pushes for allocation of more resources or goes beyond that to fundamentally prioritize human security over national security.
Ann Towns, professor of political science at Sweden’s University of Gothenburg, said many feminists reject the idea that “there is inherent tension between feminist foreign policy and security policy,” adding: “Kallas would fall in that same tradition.”
Edited by: Jon Shelton Jr.