European Parliament elections will be held in early June, triggering possible changes at the top of the European Commission and the European Council.
At present, it remains unclear whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will run for reelection. Continuity within the EU’s executive would augur continuity in its engagement with Southeast Asian countries, which has been on an upward trajectory in recent years.
However, a surge by the far right in the elections or a hung parliament, sparking post-election politicking, could disrupt the EU’s foreign policy agenda, analysts have said.
Indonesia elections
In February, some 200 million voters in Indonesia will also head to the polls to vote for a new president and parliament, and their decisions will have ramifications across the region.
“Indonesia is regarded as primus inter pares in [Southeast Asia], thus the outcome of the presidential and parliamentary elections in the largest Muslim country in the world will be closely watched,” said Alfred Gerstl, an expert on Indo-Pacific international relations at the University of Vienna.
“A likely positive outcome is that it can be expected the election will be free and fair, proving that democracy works in Southeast Asia,” he added.
According to most opinion polls, the front-runner is Prabowo Subianto, the current defense minister and the purported status-quo candidate.
Subianto will put a “stronger emphasis on strengthening Indonesia’s defense capabilities but will otherwise likely follow the traditional free-and-active foreign policy credo,” said Gerstl.
However, some reckon he will be even more assertive than Joko Widodo, the incumbent president, over the EU’s deforestation and environmental regulations.
Indonesia and Malaysia — which together account for around 85% of global palm oil production — in 2021 launched cases against the EU at the World Trade Organization, while their governments decried what Jakarta called “regulatory imperialism.”
How will the EU’s palm oil restrictions affect ties?
From December 2024, the EU rules will ban the import of numerous goods, including palm oil, timber and rubber, unless companies can prove they aren’t causing deforestation, a requirement that several Southeast Asian governments have said is too burdensome on their countries’ small businesses.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are the world’s three largest exporters of palm oil, as well as major exporters of other products that could be banned under the EU’s incoming laws.
Speaking in November at a forum organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, Subianto said that Indonesia doesn’t “really need Europe anymore.”
“We open our market to you, but you won’t allow us to sell palm oil, and now we have problems trying to sell coffee, tea, cocoa,” he added.
The EU will continue with free-trade agreement negotiations with Indonesia and Thailand which progressed in 2023.
Peter Stano, an EU spokesperson, said he reckons Thailand’s parliament will approve the EU-Thailand Partnership and Cooperation Agreement in 2024, allowing many of the engagement mechanisms under this pact to come into force.
Some pundits also think formal EU trade talks with Malaysia and the Philippines could begin next year; the governments of both countries this year voiced their ambition to advance discussions.
Calming tensions over Israel’s offensive in Gaza
Meanwhile, Malaysia and Indonesia, two Muslim-majority nations, have been vehemently opposed to Israel’s ongoing military offensive in Gaza and have repeatedly called out Western countries for their apparent “double standards” in not supporting a cease-fire in Gaza at the same time as they have militarily aided Ukraine.
Israel launched its offensive in Gaza after Hamas, which has been recognized as a terrorist group by the EU, the United States, Germany and other governments, carried out a series of major terror attacks in southern Israel on October 7, killing some 1,200 people and taking more than 200 hostages.
Tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza have since been killed in the fighting, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza.
Calming the tensions over the situation in Gaza will be high on the agenda at the EU-ASEAN Ministerial, a meeting of EU and Southeast Asian foreign ministers, in Brussels on February 2. It will be the “highlight of the year” for European-Southeast Asian relations, according to Stano.
“We aim to adopt a joint statement on enhancing our strategic partnership and defending multilateralism in the face of increased global instability,” said the EU spokesperson.
Several unknowns remain for 2024
Laos — a communist-run state and arguably the Southeast Asian country with the least diplomatic engagement with the EU — takes over the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2024 and will host the bloc’s annual events and summits for the entire year.
Because of Laos’ close partnership with China, some other Southeast Asian governments are concerned Laos could use its chairmanship to advance Beijing’s interests in the region, especially over the South China Sea, a maritime area in which China is engaged in increasingly hostile territorial disputes with several Southeast Asian countries.
Another unknown is Myanmar, a country that has been in political crisis since a military coup in early 2021. In the final months of 2023, a major offensive launched by several ethnic armed groups appeared to be tipping the balance against the military junta.
But those groups in December sat down for China-mediated talks with the generals — a possible sign that the most militarily competent of the ethnic organizations might not automatically side with the shadow National Unity Government and its ambitions to build a federal democracy.
The EU has imposed several rounds of sanctions on the Myanmar junta and its affiliated businesses and increased humanitarian aid to the country this year, as well as engaging more openly with government officials.
But most analysts don’t expect a sea change in EU policy, certainly not formal recognition of the National Unity Government as the legitimate government or funding for anti-junta forces.
Edited by: Keith Walker